Last Minute Oscar Pics

It was a fairly meh year, and I'm about 30 movie reviews behind. And I have no sense of what the Academy is up to. But I'll take a wild shot at this year's pix.

The "Best Picture" field has been expanded to ten films, nine of which I've seen. I didn't go see The Kids Are All Right because the buzz on it was too...perfect. Gay-themed movies with A-List stars always get overpraised. But I will eventually see it, on Jason The Commeter's recommendation.

Anyhoo, even without that, I can say the best movie of 2010 was Toy Story 3. But the Academy can't give the Oscar to an animated flick. Can't. Be. Done. I'd say they'd vote for the fairly banal Social Network but didn't they just give Fincher an award for the nearly as banal Benjamin Button? No? Hmmm.

No, I think it's gonna go to The King's Speech. This is a very enjoyable historical drama, stuffed to the gills with acting and meaning—reflecting on the importance of presentation. The Social Network is about the Internet after all, and there's no shortage of hostility to the Internet in Hollywood.

If it can't go to Toy Story 3, it probably should go to Winter's Bone, but King's Speech is a grand film in the Hollywood tradition.

Likewise, I think Colin Firth will win because Jesse Eisenberg is a punk, Bridges won last year, Franco was really good—but 127 Hours just isn't Oscar material, however good—and Bardem is a Spaniard (who already has an Oscar).

For best actress, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say Jennifer Lawrence will win. To my mind, the acting awards are always the toughest. There's almost always a good crowd. The supporting actor/actress award is usually the one where the less conservative pics are, and yet I think Lawrence was the big standout this year.

Best supporting actor? Christian Bale. Why? He needs one. They can't give him one for being Batman, but they can give him one for losing a bunch of weight and playing a crack addict.

The supporting actress category is even tougher. As tempted as I am to say that it'll be Hailee Steinfeld—and that's a way more likely bet than Jennifer Lawrence—I'm gonna guess Melissa Leo gets it. Seems like she's due.

Best Director: Tom Hooper. Well, look The King's Speech wins best pic, it almost has to be the Best Director, too, right? Not really, but I'm gonna say the other guys all have the contempt that comes from familiarity.

Inception for best screenplay. That way they can give Chris Nolan an award that doesn't really matter.

Aaron Sorkin for the other best screenplay. 'cause they love him.

Toy Story 3 for best animated. If they give it to The Illusionist out of spite, they deserve to finish their careers out as voice actors for French funded films.

Biutiful for best foreign. Why? It's the only one I've even heard of, and I see more movies than most of the Academy.

Cinematography is a tough one. The real contenders are True Grit, Black Swan and Inception. But King's Speech could win 'cause it's on a roll. (I'm not sure how any picture can have "momentum" in this kind of voting scheme but they always talk like it does.) True Grit has the best classical cinematography—lots of great landscapes and natural lighting—while Black Swan's cinematography contributed heavily to its sense of a claustrophobia and paranoia.

I'm gonna guess Inception, just on the basis of it being incredibly complex.

Somehow, Inception isn't even up for editing which doesn't make a whole lot of sense. But 127 Hours is. Editing is almost always good in an big budget movies. I remember a few years ago (maybe 10-15, actually) where the editing was really bad and just being shocked. They're highly skilled guys as far as I can tell.

So my guess is between King's Speech (see previous discussion of "momentum") or Black Swan. I'm going to guess the latter.

Those are my guesses.

Let's watch and see how I fare.

(I'm kidding. Last time I watched the Oscars was...I think when the Enigma was too young to complain.)